QUANTUM SECURITY THREATS
ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT VULNERABILITIES AND ANTICIPATED QUANTUM COMPUTING BREAKTHROUGHS THAT THREATEN EXISTING CRYPTOGRAPHIC STANDARDS.
GLOBAL THREAT LEVEL
CURRENT STATUS:
4
3
2
1
0
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
| ALGORITHM | CURRENT STATUS | QUANTUM THREAT | ESTIMATED BREACH |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSA-1024 | COMPROMISED | Shor's Algorithm | IMMEDIATE |
| RSA-2048 | VULNERABLE | Shor's Algorithm | 128 DAYS |
| ECC-256 | VULNERABLE | Shor's Algorithm | 167 DAYS |
| AES-128 | MODERATE RISK | Grover's Algorithm | 3+ YEARS |
| AES-256 | LOW RISK | Grover's Algorithm | 10+ YEARS |
| SHA-256 | MODERATE RISK | Grover's Algorithm | 5+ YEARS |
| CRYSTALS-KYBER | SECURE | No Known Attack | UNDEFINED |
| CRYSTALS-DILITHIUM | SECURE | No Known Attack | UNDEFINED |
CRITICAL ADVISORY
ALL ORGANIZATIONS USING RSA-1024 MUST TRANSITION IMMEDIATELY TO POST-QUANTUM CRYPTOGRAPHY. RSA-2048 IMPLEMENTATIONS MUST COMPLETE TRANSITION WITHIN 60 DAYS. CURRENT QUANTUM SYSTEMS HAVE DEMONSTRATED CAPABILITIES THAT THREATEN THESE STANDARDS IN LABORATORY CONDITIONS.
STATUS: EMERGENCY DIRECTIVE 25-01 IN EFFECT
QUANTUM COMPUTING MILESTONES
2023-06-15
First 1000+ qubit processor with 99.2% gate fidelity demonstrated
2023-11-28
Quantum error correction threshold achieved for logical qubits
2024-02-10
First practical implementation of Shor's algorithm on 512-bit number
2024-09-30
RSA-1024 factored in controlled laboratory environment
2024-12-15
3000+ qubit processor with 99.5% gate fidelity demonstrated
2025-03-22
First 4000+ qubit system announced with scalable architecture
2025-08-08
PROJECTED: Quantum advantage reached for cryptanalysis